Modelo multivariable para un sistema de transporte de crudos pesados

Abstract

The world oil production increased the production of heavy crude, in Ecuador by decreasing the production of light crude oil, the extraction of new deposits of clearly heavy crude has begun with the consequent increase in viscosity and decrease in the API degree, which implies a cost increase in both production and transportation. The following study analyzes the global data on the consumption of electricity, diesel and crude oil from the process of transportation of crude oil by pipeline that includes four pumping stations and three pressure reducing stations between the years 2018 and 2019, a period that presents significant changes in the quality of the transportation product due to the increase in local heavy crude oil as well as the inflow of crude from Colombia. The objective of this research is to quantify the influence of the variables Transported volume, Viscosity, API grade, product temperature, Ambient temperature, relative humidity and rain intensity on energy consumption related to the transportation of heavy oil by pipeline. Significant variables with the multivariate analysis method of the Statgraphics Centurion XVI software. With these variables and following the recommendations of ISO 50001, the consumption rates and the baselines of an energy management system are determined. A comparative evaluation of the energy consumption models obtained from the multivariate analysis in relation to the one-variable model is also carried out. According to the established correlations, it is established that the transported volume and viscosity are the main variables that influence energy costs, it is the transported volume with a correlation coefficient of 0.92. The environmental parameters did not present any significant influence on the transportation process.