Estudio de la evolución cuantitativa de los homicidios en el Distrito Metropolitano de Quito durante los años 2020–2025

Abstract

This paper analyzes the evolution, at the quantitative level of homicides in the Metropolitan District of Quito between 2020 and 2025, in the context of a growing security crisis linked to drug trafficking and the strengthening of organized crime. The objective of the research is to identify patterns and underlying causes of homicidal violence in the city during this period. A mixed methodological approach was used, combining quantitative techniques for the statistical analysis of homicides and qualitative tools to explore the social and criminal contexts that explain them. In 2020, homicides were relatively low due to restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, starting in 2021, a criminal transformation became evident, with signs of gang fragmentation and prison violence. In the following years, homicides increased significantly, peaking in 2023. In 2024, the government responded with security measures such as the declaration of a Non-International Armed Conflict (NICI), which led to a partial reduction in 2025. However, it is concluded that these actions were insufficient in Quito, where violence persists. A more comprehensive, sustained, and coordinated strategy is needed to effectively confront organized crime.