Modelos estadísticos de ruido ambiental para el Distrito Metropolitano de Quito DMQ, mediante datos históricos del 2009 al 2015, validados al 2019, como herramienta de calidad ambiental

Abstract

The management of the traffic noise within the Metropolitan District of Quito has been tried indirectly, only as an indicator of air pollution control. However, studies have forgotten the evaluation of human health effects and the magnitude of the polluting agent in the city. The increase of vehicles of 12% annually has saturated the roads, and the traffic noise is more in an urban zone at the District. For this reason, the present project had the objective of designing statistical models of traffic noise in DMQ with historical data from 2009-2015, and its subsequent verification with data from the Environment Secretary of the DMQ to 2019, applying simple and multiple linear regression analysis. A database and an analysis of the behavior of noise in recent years carried out, influenced by the traffic flow in the city, establishing a relationship between the number of vehicles and the equivalent noise. Finally, the validation and evaluation of the models performed employing confidence intervals and least squares regression by calculating the correlation coefficient of these models and validating them through the analysis of variances (ANOVA) that allowed determining the magnitude of the relationship between the variables and the effectiveness of the model. The result from the investigation determined the noise maintains a variant tendency, which is related to the number of vehicles circulating in the streets of Quito as well as the speed of the same ones. It’s evident that during the day the noise frequently changes until six o’clock in the evening and from seven o’clock at night, the noise decreases as a function of the diminution of the vehicles. For that reason, the simple linear regression models, as well as the zonal and integral multiple models, adjust to the conditions of the urban area South, Center, and North of the Metropolitan District of Quito.