Análisis de correlación entre los indicadores sociales sobre la distribución espacio temporal de enfermedades transmitidas por aedes aegypti en la Región Costa del Ecuador

Abstract

Dengue, chinkungunya and zika are infectious diseases transmitted by the bite of the female Aedes Aegypti mosquito. In Ecuador, this vector is common in tropical and sub- tropical areas where several cases are reported annually due to environmental and social indicators in the coastal region of Ecuador. The general objective of this research was to analyze the spatial distribution and correlation between social indicators and diseases transmitted by Aedes Aegypti. Specifically, the spatial distribution was carried out using reference technology of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), obtaining maps at 1: 50,000 scale of the incidence of diseases for each year in the 2013-2018 period, and nine social indicators, In addition, the spatio-temporal dynamics of the incidence rates of the virus and their relationship with the social indicators were analyzed using the tool (Anselin Local Moran's I) through which high groupings were obtained in the provinces of Manabí and Esmeraldas and clusters low in El Oro and part of Guayas, with outliers in the Guayaquil canton. High values are due to certain social indicators such as poverty, education level, waste collection. The Spatial Autocorrelation (I of global Moran) quantified the degree of significant spatial autocorrelation in the index of the sum of total diseases, being the highest in the province of Esmeraldas. The latest correlation analysis of diseases and social indicators such as: poverty and lack of hygienic service has a correlation 0.8 which would be significant and the lowest correlation is visualized with the indicator “cannot read and write” that It has a correlation of 0.17, this value being very weak, this could be due to the fact that the MSP data is not significant or the census data were not taken properly.